2023 December 6: Zach Collins
The San Antonio Spurs will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves in a matchup of struggling Western Conference teams on Wednesday night. This game features an intriguing player prop bet matchup between Spurs forward Zach Collins and the Timberwolves.
Collins has put up solid numbers this season, averaging 13.8 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game. His prop bets for tonight’s game include over 10.5 points, over 5.5 rebounds and over 3.5 assists. Do Collins’ stats stack up favorably against Minnesota this season for him to hit these numbers?
Zach Collins Aims to Stay Hot Against Struggling T-Wolves Defense
Over his last ten games, Collins has been playing the best basketball of his career, averaging 14.1 points on 50% shooting. He has hit the over on his 10.5 point prop in 15 of 19 games this season. His increased scoring has coincided with more playing time and a larger role in the Spurs offense.
The Timberwolves have struggled defensively this season, ranking 25th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They have particularly struggled to defend frontcourt players like Collins. Minnesota allows the 7th most points per game to power forwards.
Collins has fared decently against the Timberwolves in his career, averaging 9.5 points and 4 rebounds per game. Though below his season averages, these numbers make his player prop overs reasonable, considering Minnesota’s poor defense.
Key Stats and Trends:
- Over 14 points per game past 10 games
- Over 10.5 points in 15 of 19 games this season
- Timberwolves allow 7th most points to power forwards
- Career averages of 9.5 points, 4 rebounds vs. Minnesota
Battle on Boards Key for Collins
In addition to his scoring prowess, Collins makes an impact on the glass, averaging 6 rebounds per game this year. His 5.5 rebound over seems within reach against a middling Minnesota rebounding team.
The Timberwolves rank 18th in the NBA in total rebounds per game and rebounds allowed. Collins has reached the over 5.5 rebounds in half of his games this season. He could take advantage of the Timberwolves’ vulnerabilities inside.
However, Collins has struggled historically against Minnesota on the boards. In four career games, he has averaged only 4 rebounds per contest against them. Still, given Collins’ elevated play this season, he has a chance to improve on those numbers tonight.
Key Stats and Trends:
- Averaging 6 rebounds per game this season
- 5.5+ rebounds in 10 of 19 games
- Timberwolves allow 46.5 rebounds per game
- Only 4 career rebounds per game vs. Minnesota
Playmaking Ability a Factor for Collins
Collins has shown some skill as a distributor this season, posting 3.9 assists per contest. He eclipses his 3.5 assists over about half the time. While not a primary playmaker, Collins can create offense for teammates when called upon.
Surprisingly, Collins has elevated his assist numbers facing the Timberwolves, averaging 4.7 per contest. The Timberwolves defense has been particularly vulnerable to playmaking big men. Collins could take advantage as a passer if Minnesota keys on stopping his scoring.
Key Stats and Trends
- 3.9 assists per game this season
- Over 3.5 assists in 10 of 19 games
- Averages 4.7 assists per game vs. Minnesota
- Timberwolves vulnerable against playmaking bigs
Outlook and Prediction
Based on his improved numbers this year and a favorable matchup, I predict Collins will hit the over on points and rebounds against the Timberwolves. Minnesota has struggled against frontcourt scorers and on the glass.
Collins’ assist numbers are more questionable, but he has upped his distribution against Minnesota in the past. I expect something like 16 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists from Collins tonight.
For bettors, take Collins to beat 10.5 points and 5.5 rebounds. The 3.5 assists pose more risk, but his history versus Minnesota says he can deliver there too. Collins is in a good rhythm right now, so expect a dynamic all-around outing.
In the game itself, I foresee the red hot Spurs continuing their strong play of late and taking down the slumping Wolves. Look for Collins and PG Tre Jones to lead San Antonio to a close road victory.
Final Score Prediction: Spurs 108, Timberwolves 104
