When the Spring Training curtain rose, the Atlanta Braves were the resounding favorites to reign supreme in the NL East. As of March 16, the oddsmakers had the Braves at a lofty -340 to capture the division crown, while the Phillies trailed at a distant +350. Only the Dodgers’ stranglehold on the NL West surpassed Atlanta’s projected dominance.
Yet, as we navigate the labyrinthine corridors of May, a quarter of the campaign in the rearview mirror, the Braves find themselves unseated from their perch. It is the Phillies who currently bask in the divisional zenith, albeit by a mere two-game margin. Remarkably, the Phillies boast baseball’s best record, with the Braves looming ominously in their wake.
I posit that the Phillies possess the mettle to sustain this torrid pace. In recent years, they have exhibited a penchant for sluggish starts before igniting their afterburners. Last season, through 41 games, they languished at 20-21. In 2022, their record stood at a pedestrian 19-22. We all bore witness to their eventual ascent, rendering their current robust commencement a harbinger of their ability to shadow the mighty Braves throughout the marathon.
While the Phillies’ potent offense often steals the spotlight, their rotation has staked a claim as baseball’s finest this season. No longer reliant solely on the elite arms of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, the Phillies have been buoyed by the ace-caliber performances of Ranger Suárez and the excellent Cristopher Sánchez. Even Spencer Turnbull shone brightly before Taijuan Walker’s return relegated him to the bullpen.
On the Braves’ front, perhaps their most compelling selling point lies in the adversity they have already surmounted. Ace Spencer Strider’s season-ending injury and an underwhelming offense, relative to last year’s juggernaut and preseason projections, have tested their mettle. Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Austin Riley, in particular, endured early-season struggles. While a regression from Marcell Ozuna is anticipated, no one else is drastically outperforming expectations. Strider’s return is off the table, but Max Fried is rounding into form, and Chris Sale has recaptured his vintage dominance. The rest of the rotation has ample time to find its rhythm.
And through this gauntlet of challenges, the Braves still lurk a mere two games behind baseball’s best record. A resounding testament to their eventual reclamation of the throne, no?
Yet, the Phillies seem disinclined to cede their newfound eminence.
The odds have narrowed considerably. The Braves now sit at -240 to claim the division, while the Phillies have surged to +165. A seismic shift from the preseason projections, with 75% of the season yet to unfurl. SportsLine simulations envision both the Braves and Phillies reaching the centennial win plateau, with the Phillies emerging victorious in 50.3% of simulations and the Braves prevailing 49.3% of the time.
What appeared destined to be the fifth-most competitive division out of six entering the season now threatens to devolve into a tête-à-tête between two juggernauts flirting with 100 wins. As I am wont to exclaim, that’s the stuff of pure, unadulterated exhilaration.
