The Indian stock market witnessed a volatile trading session on Thursday, with the Nifty 50 index oscillating between gains and losses before settling on a flat to negative note. The benchmark index opened on a positive note, maintained buying interest in the first half, but succumbed to profit booking in the latter half, closing at 23,031. The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, cooled off slightly from 15.47 levels but still ended 0.40% higher at 14.96, indicating lingering uncertainty among investors.
Technical Analysis: Nifty Forms Red Candle with Long Upper Shadow
On the daily chart, the Nifty formed a small red candle with a long upper shadow, signaling selling pressure at higher levels. According to Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates, the 21-Day Simple Moving Average (DSMA) at 23,270 is acting as a strong resistance zone. The 23,270-23,300 range is now a critical hurdle for the index. On the downside, the 22,780 level is expected to serve as a key support. As long as the Nifty holds above 22,780, a buy-on-dips strategy is advisable.
The Open Interest (OI) data further reinforces this technical outlook. The highest OI on the call side was observed at the 23,200 and 24,100 strike prices, indicating potential resistance zones. On the put side, the highest OI was at the 23,000 strike price, followed by 22,800, suggesting strong support levels.
Sensex Erases Early Gains, Ends Flat
The Sensex mirrored the Nifty’s trajectory, erasing early gains and swinging between positive and negative territory throughout the session. The index struggled to maintain momentum as investors remained cautious amid mixed global cues and domestic factors. The lack of a clear directional trend highlights the market’s indecisiveness ahead of key economic data releases and geopolitical developments.
Global Markets: US Stocks Open Higher After Producer Prices Data
Wall Street opened higher on Thursday as investors digested the latest producer prices data and the prospect of Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 57.4 points, or 0.13%, to 44,425.94, while the S&P 500 gained 8.6 points, or 0.14%, to 6,060.59. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 47 points, or 0.24%, to 19,696.918 at the opening bell.
The producer price index (PPI) data, which measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers, showed a monthly uptick of 0.3%, in line with expectations. This comes a day after the consumer price index (CPI) data revealed the highest increase in prices in nearly a year and a half, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s stance on maintaining higher interest rates for longer.
Corporate Highlights: Shriram Finance Raises $500 Million via ECB
In corporate news, Shriram Finance Ltd (SFL), a leading non-banking financial company (NBFC), announced that it has raised $500 million (approximately Rs 4,300 crore) through External Commercial Borrowing (ECB). This marks the largest SACE-covered loan facility raised by an NBFC in India, underscoring SFL’s ability to diversify its funding sources strategically. SACE, an Italian export credit agency, played a pivotal role in facilitating this transaction.
Religare Enterprises: Rashmi Saluja Steps Down as Director
In a significant development, Religare Enterprises announced that its executive chairperson, Rashmi Saluja, has ceased to be a director on its board. This follows the shareholders’ decision to reject her re-appointment. Saluja’s exit comes amid the Burmans’ open offer to acquire an additional 26% stake in the company. Her departure is expected to have significant implications for the company’s future strategy and governance.
Earnings Season: Mixed Results from Key Players
The ongoing earnings season saw mixed results from several key players. Hindalco Industries reported a robust 60% year-on-year (YoY) growth in consolidated net profit to Rs 3,735 crore for the December quarter, driven by strong operational performance and higher revenue. The company’s revenue from operations rose 11% YoY to Rs 58,390 crore.
On the other hand, Kalpataru Projects International posted a marginal 3% decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 139.59 crore for the December 2024 quarter, despite a 17% increase in total income to Rs 5,742.76 crore. Similarly, Hindustan Construction Company (HCC) reported a consolidated loss of Rs 38.92 crore for the December quarter, primarily due to changes in the tax regime.
Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund: The Power of SIPs
Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund emphasized the benefits of Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) in a recent report. The fund house highlighted that while investors often do not continue SIPs for extended periods, those who stay invested for at least seven years are “generally blessed” with favorable returns. The report analyzed monthly rolling SIP returns of key indices, including the Nifty 100, Nifty Midcap 150, and Nifty Smallcap 250, over the past two decades, underscoring the long-term wealth creation potential of disciplined investing.
Unilever Spins Off Ice Cream Business, Chooses Amsterdam for Primary Listing
In a blow to London’s financial hub, Unilever announced that it will spin off its ice cream business and list it primarily in Amsterdam, with secondary listings in London and New York. The decision is a setback for British finance minister Rachel Reeves, who has been actively working to attract IPOs to London. Unilever’s shares dropped nearly 7% in London following the announcement, wiping off approximately £8.5 billion from its market value.
Paytm Money Settles SEBI Violation Case
Paytm Money, the stock broking arm of One 97 Communications, has settled a case with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) by paying Rs 45.50 lakh. The settlement was made without admitting or denying the findings of the investigation into alleged regulatory violations. This development comes amid heightened scrutiny of fintech companies by regulatory authorities.
India’s Consumption Pivot: Implications for Small and Mid-Cap Stocks
Bank of America Corp. strategists have warned that India’s small and mid-cap stocks are likely to decline for the first time in three years in 2025. This segment, which has outperformed the broader market in recent years, is expected to face headwinds as the government shifts its focus from investment-driven growth to boosting domestic consumption. The pivot towards consumption is likely to benefit large-cap stocks at the expense of smaller players, particularly those in the infrastructure sector.
Rupee Gains 3 Paise Against US Dollar
The Indian rupee appreciated by 3 paise to settle at 86.92 against the US dollar, supported by positive domestic equity markets and a weaker greenback overseas. However, the currency’s gains were capped by rising crude oil prices and cautious investor sentiment ahead of key economic data releases.
Market Stats: Advance-Decline Ratio Favors Sellers
The broader market sentiment remained cautious, with the advance-decline ratio favoring sellers. Out of 4,074 stocks traded, 1,847 advanced while 2,099 declined. Notably, 54 stocks hit 52-week highs, while 238 touched lows. Additionally, 178 stocks were in the upper circuit, and 301 were in the lower circuit, reflecting the mixed sentiment across sectors.
Outlook for Friday: Key Levels to Watch
As the market heads into Friday’s trading session, investors will closely monitor the Nifty’s ability to hold the 22,780 support level. A break below this level could trigger further downside, while a sustained move above 23,270 could pave the way for a fresh rally. The buy-on-dips strategy remains advisable as long as the index stays above the key support zone.
In conclusion, the Indian stock market remains in a consolidation phase, with technical indicators suggesting a cautious approach. Investors are advised to stay vigilant and focus on stock-specific opportunities while keeping an eye on global developments and domestic economic data.