London – Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces a critical test on Tuesday evening as he pushes ahead with a parliamentary vote on his controversial Rwanda immigration bill, seeking to shore up his weakening grip on power in the face of mounting pressure from rebel factions within his Conservative Party.
The bill, dubbed the “Safety of Rwanda Bill” by the government, aims to override domestic and international law to allow the UK to deport some asylum seekers who arrive illegally on small boats to Rwanda. Sunak has championed the policy as the “toughest immigration law ever,” hoping it will appeal to hardline Tories and quell intra-party dissent.
But both moderate Conservatives and right-wing rebels have raised concerns, the former about the UK potentially breaching human rights obligations and the latter arguing the bill does not go far enough to reduce illegal migration. More than 20 Tory MPs are expected to join opposition parties in voting against the legislation.
“This Rwanda gimmick is unethical, unworkable and expensive. As Prime Minister, I would use the money saved to tackle the criminal gangs that profit from this human suffering,” said Labour leader Keir Starmer, who is leading in the polls ahead of elections next year.
The stakes are high for Sunak. A defeat would be a major embarrassment, undermining his authority over his party just months into his premiership. It could also galvanize his Conservative critics, led by former Home Secretary Suella Braverman who has questioned his leadership credentials with an election on the horizon.
Containing Rebellion Key to Sunak’s Survival
Sunak took over from Liz Truss in late October after her brief stint as Prime Minister was sunk by radical economic policies that sparked a rebellion within Conservative ranks. He promised unity and stability, but has struggled to unite the different factions.
The Rwanda vote is his first big test to contain rebellion and assert control. It comes after his original deportation scheme was deemed unlawful by the Supreme Court last month. The new fast-tracked bill aims to circumvent that ruling.
Critically for Sunak, the Conservatives hold a modest majority of 67 seats in parliament. It would take just 28-30 Conservative MPs voting against him to inflict an embarrassing defeat.
Hence the breakfast summit at Downing Street on Tuesday morning, where Sunak hosted rebel Tories to make a last-ditch case for the bill ahead of the evening vote. He cannot afford substantial dissent from his backbenchers if the legislation is to pass.
Sunak’s Supporters Say He’s Showing Leadership
Sunak’s allies say pressing ahead with the vote shows he is willing to take tough decisions and exert leadership, even if it risks short-term dissent.
“The PM has shown real steel and conviction by bringing this Bill back so quickly,” said Conservative Chairman Greg Hands. “We cannot allow people traffickers to continue to exploit people seeking asylum.”
The government argues overriding domestic and international law is justified to curb illegal Channel crossings from France, which have soared to record levels. More than 40,000 migrants arrived illegally this year, up from 28,526 last year, adding pressure on the UK’s asylum system.
Curbing small boat arrivals was a key promise in the Conservatives’ 2019 manifesto. Hardline Tories and voters in the party’s heartlands see it as a test of the government’s credibility on border control.
Hence Sunak’s calculation that uniting his party behind the Rwanda policy offers political upside despite opposition complaints about its morality and costs – over £240 million paid to Rwanda so far.
What Happens If Sunak Loses The Vote?
A heavy defeat would be a blow to Sunak’s leadership credentials just weeks after replacing Truss. It could spur further rebellions and demands for policy shifts from Conservative factions.
But the bill would not necessarily fail. It faces further parliamentary hurdles and could be revived even if voted down on Tuesday. Much depends on the margin of defeat and whether Sunak shows willingness to compromise.
Offering concessions to party rebels could help him frame a loss as listening to MPs, rather than an outright rejection of his authority or the Rwanda policy itself.
Sunak will be hoping that scenario is enough to contain rebellion and reassert control. But his rivals within the party will likely see any defeat as proof he lacks support for his agenda, potentially spurring leadership plots.
The Rwanda vote is just the opening salvo in what threatens to be a long battle for authority within a divided Conservative Party. Sunak’s political survival may well hinge on his ability to unite rebels behind his policy platform. The margin of Tuesday’s vote will offer the first indication of whether he can succeed.
