In 2016, the World Health Organization warned of a hypothetical, yet very real threat they named “Disease X.” This ominous name represents an unknown pathogen with the potential to cause a deadly global pandemic. In the wake of COVID-19, which has claimed over 6 million lives worldwide, Disease X is no longer a distant proposition but a clear and present danger. As world leaders gather this week at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Disease X remains at the forefront of discussions on global health security.
What exactly is Disease X and how does it compare to COVID-19? Disease X is not a single identified illness but rather serves as a placeholder name for any emerging infectious disease that could spiral into a global health emergency. While its exact origin, transmission methods, and mortality rate remain a mystery, experts caution it could be even more lethal and destabilizing than COVID-19.
This is because Disease X, by its very nature as an unknown pathogen, presents additional challenges we have witnessed during the coronavirus pandemic. Without early detection, effective treatments and vaccines are delayed, allowing a novel disease to spread unabated. Swift action is critical, but the COVID-19 pandemic laid bare vulnerabilities in global surveillance networks and health systems’ capacities to respond rapidly to new infectious threats.
As the World Economic Forum panel convenes in Davos this week, influential voices are calling for renewed commitments to pandemic preparedness and response. According to WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the world remains woefully unprepared for Disease X and the next inevitable outbreak. Without additional investment in research, infrastructure, and global cooperation, we risk an even greater catastrophe when, not if, a new Disease X emerges.
Other health experts echo Dr. Tedros’ urgent appeal. Apollo Hospitals Executive Vice-Chairperson Preetha Reddy warns Disease X could be 20 times deadlier than COVID-19, arguing that massive innovation and coordination is needed at a global scale. To get ahead of Disease X, she calls for leveraging breakthrough technologies like artificial intelligence and mobilizing international funding mechanisms through organizations like CEPI, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.
CEPI, a key player in the development of COVID-19 vaccines, has already earmarked $3.5 billion towards a bold 100-day vaccine response plan. Through advance development of versatile vaccine platforms and manufacturing capacity, they aim to dramatically shorten the timeline to produce safe, effective vaccines during a future outbreak. Vaccine equity is also front and center, with commitments to make 2 billion doses available to poorer countries within that first critical 100 days.
While vaccines will be a critical tool, early warning surveillance and rapid data sharing are paramount to mitigating Disease X. As Michel Demaré, Chair of pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca, emphasizes, the linchpin is detecting an outbreak and developing treatments quickly: “What is needed is sensors everywhere to identify new pathogens and platforms to rapidly develop new treatments.”
To this end, the World Health Organization is leading initiatives to modernize and connect disparate disease tracking systems at the local and global level. The WHO Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence, launched in 2021, is focused on harnessing innovations like natural language processing and big data analytics to monitor signals of emerging outbreaks in real-time worldwide. Still nascent, its capabilities will be tested by the inevitable emergence of Disease X.
But sophisticated tools alone cannot predict where or when Disease X may strike. Nisia Trindade Lima, Brazil’s Minister of Health, stresses the need to confront long-standing inequities driving infectious disease risks, especially in lower income regions. From expanding universal healthcare to addressing climate change, there are no quick fixes, only sustained progress towards more equitable, healthier, and resilient societies worldwide.
Fundamentally, our collective vulnerabilities reveal how inseparable our fates are in the face of infectious disease. While past pandemics should have erased any doubt, COVID-19 reaffirmed that pathogens do not respect borders. Truly getting ahead of Disease X requires the solidarity and political will for a coordinated global response, guided by science and the shared desire to prevent needless suffering.
Are there reasons to be hopeful in the race against Disease X? Absolutely, though complacency is not an option. With unprecedented investments in pandemic readiness, groundbreaking medical innovations, and hard lessons learned from COVID-19 still fresh, we are collectively more attuned to the threat of Disease X than ever before. But as long as glaring gaps, inequities and inaction persist, so will the danger of the next pandemic catching us off guard.
There are no guarantees when or how Disease X will emerge. However, by working to strengthen health systems, expand vaccine access, enhance surveillance networks, and address root causes of pandemic risks worldwide, we can become far more resilient. While Disease X is unavoidable, its toll on humanity is not fixed. A future pandemic may yet humble us, but it need not break us.
