The cryptocurrency world is abuzz with excitement as Bitcoin’s next halving event approaches. This significant occasion is set to occur in April 2024, when the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation gets cut in half. Industry experts have been eagerly analyzing historical data and market trends, coming up with bold projections that the price of the crypto behemoth could reach as high as $170,000 in the months following the halving.
Bitcoin halving happens approximately every four years and greatly impacts supply and demand dynamics. With fewer new coins being minted, an economic principle of scarcity kicks in that tends to drive prices up. Previous halvings have preceded massive bull runs that saw Bitcoin valuations explode.
Halvings Spark Epic Bitcoin Bull Runs
Cast your mind back to Bitcoin’s last halving in May 2020. At that time, the cryptocurrency was trading at around $9,670 according to Yahoo Finance. Fast forward just 18 months, and Bitcoin hit its current all-time high of $69,000. That’s a phenomenal 714% price increase coming hot on the heels of reduced supply from the 2020 halving.
Now let’s rewind a bit further back in time to the prior halving in July 2016. Bitcoin closed at $656 on the day of that event before skyrocketing to a peak of $19,783 in December 2017. That’s a gigantic 2,913% rise fueled by the 2016 halving.
Seeing parallels here? Bitcoin halvings clearly light a fire under the price of this digital asset. Scarcity spurs demand, which translates into higher valuations. This pattern has played out reliably after the past two halvings. Cryptocurrency analysts expect history to repeat once again in 2024.
Projecting $170K+ for Post-Halving Bitcoin
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, is among the crypto experts foretelling steep climbs for Bitcoin in the aftermath of the 2024 halving. His post-halving price projection of at least $170,000 is based on the consistent tripling of Bitcoin’s value in the 18 months following previous halvings. He calls this estimate “conservative.”
If Bitcoin is trading around $35,000 at the time of the April 2024 halving, a tripling effect would put it at $105,000 or so by October 2025. If it’s at $50,000 during the halving, 18 months later you’re looking at roughly $150,000. And if BTC reaches $60,000 by April 2024, a triple gets you to $180,000.
Scaramucci explains this logic: “Go back and look at Bitcoin halving cycles…The day that Bitcoin halves, multiply it by four [and] 18 months later and it’s been uncanny that that’s been the price of Bitcoin.”
Other crypto experts like Blockstream CEO Adam Back and Standard Chartered analysts also see Bitcoin potentially topping $100,000 post-halving. The most bullish projections come from those who expect Bitcoin to eventually reach half the market capitalization of gold, which would value the cryptocurrency at over $300,000 per coin.
Recent Bitcoin Price Action
In the run up to a halving event, Bitcoin price action tends to follow a similar pattern. After a mid-cycle peak, the crypto asset usually experiences a 30% decline right before the halving, concluding the pre-halving pullback period.
Currently Bitcoin is trading around $43,400, up 3.1% over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency did sink briefly below $40,000 last week, but did not plunge as deeply as some analysts had forecast. The excitement from SEC approval of Bitcoin futures ETFs last year has faded somewhat. But expectations of reduced supply stemming from the upcoming halving appear to be providing strong near-term support.
Per one crypto analyst who goes by “Rekt Capital” on Twitter, Bitcoin is now in the end stage of the pre-halving retracement phase. This period is expected to finish in about two weeks. Then the crypto market will enter the accumulation stage that lasts 147 days through and after the halving event. That’s when things are primed to get really interesting!
Halving Phases and Effects
Here are the five phases of the Bitcoin halving cycle, according to Rekt Capital’s analysis:
- Pre-Halving Period – 126 days
- Pre-Halving Rally – 63 days
- Pre-Halving Retrace – 77 days (almost finished)
- Accumulation – 147 days
- Parabolic Rise – 363+ days
It’s the lengthy accumulation phase followed by the year-plus parabolic rise that has Bitcoin bulls licking their chops. They believe the burgeoning scarcity from the upcoming halving will set the stage for the next epic BTC bull run.
Anthony Scaramucci summed it up like this: “It takes a very smart leader to pridefully say that Bitcoin sucks and then 24 months later say ‘you know what I got this wrong, BlackRock needs to be a part of this.’” The Skybridge Capital founder was referring to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink softening his previously harsh stance on Bitcoin over time.
Even Wall Street giants like Fink are coming around to the idea of Bitcoin as “digital gold.” And reduced circulation supply from the impending halving could serve as rocket fuel for Bitcoin to potentially realize the lofty $170,000+ price predictions. Buckle up, the next Bitcoin bull run promises to be a wild ride!
