Washington D.C. – Congressional leaders are scrambling to finalize spending bills to avert a partial government shutdown next Friday, but divisions within both parties threaten to derail negotiations.
House Speaker Mike Johnson told fellow Republicans in a private conference call on Friday night that disunity within their ranks has weakened their negotiating power against Democrats. Johnson acknowledged that his ability to secure GOP priorities in the budget bills is undercut by a faction of House conservatives who routinely oppose procedural votes on Republican measures.
“Some members in our conference said it was OK to take down a rule,” Johnson said, referring to the procedural vote required to advance a bill to the House floor for debate. The speaker stressed he remains optimistic about passing the first four spending bills, which fund agriculture, energy, transportation and veterans programs, before next week’s shutdown deadline. But he conceded a funding lapse is possible due to major disagreements still plaguing the talks.
Johnson aims to reach an agreement with Democrats on the four bills by Sunday night. The deal could include a short-term extension to buy more time for the remaining eight bills, which face even greater challenges. March 22 has been floated as a possible end date for a stopgap measure.
House leaders will likely need an overwhelming show of support from Democrats to pass the final spending bills, as a contingent of conservative Republicans is expected to oppose them. The two-thirds majority required to advance bills without standard floor debate procedures means Johnson needs nearly 290 votes.
The same House conservatives bucking procedural votes are pushing the Speaker to insist on a stopgap bill funding government only through September 30, the end of the fiscal year. They want to trigger automatic spending cuts to domestic programs mandated by last year’s debt limit law, while forgoing defense funding increases Johnson secured in his earlier deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
During the conference call, Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) pressed Johnson to hold out for a short-term continuing resolution. The speaker argued such an approach would cede leverage because Democrats are unwilling to accept domestic cuts.
Senate Dynamics Complicate Progress
Across the Capitol, Senate Democrats are navigating their own divisions that could impede budget progress. Centrist Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia insists the bills exclude Biden administration proposals on energy permitting reforms and increased IRS tax enforcement funding. Those initiatives are non-starters for Manchin, who wields significant influence in the evenly divided Senate.
“There are some differences we have to work out between the House and Senate,” acknowledged Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, the ranking Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, in an interview. Shelby remains hopeful bipartisan Senate funding bills that passed committee last year will provide the framework for final agreements. But he conceded negotiations will be difficult.
Also hanging over the talks is the looming debt ceiling, which hits on June 1. Republicans insist Democrats raise the borrowing limit on their own without GOP help, while refusing to state if they will block action to do so. Democrats note the debt is for prior spending commitments made under both parties. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said only that Republicans will insist on “real fiscal responsibility” in exchange for any debt limit increase.
The political posturing around both shutdown and debt ceiling deadlines increases the risk Congress stumbles past one or both cliffs. Lawmakers will need to compromise quickly to break the stalemate. Extending temporary government funding while deferring the debt limit into the summer could provide more runway for deal-making.
Long Term Budget Outlook Remains Grim
Even if Congress avoids near-term crises, the fundamental imbalance between revenues and spending remains unaddressed. Annual deficits topping $1 trillion are locked in for years under current laws and policies.
The Congressional Budget Office warns debt held by the public will reach a staggering 185% of GDP by 2052, driven higher by rising costs for entitlement programs and interest on the national debt. While budget sequestration cuts are one lever to restrain spending, both parties agree they are too blunt and dangerous of an instrument. More targeted reforms are needed, but remain politically perilous.
For now, lawmakers are focused just on keeping basic government functions open. Failure to enact even a temporary funding extension by March 1 would force widespread closures and service disruptions. Plunging into a shutdown while borrowing authority maxes out would be an economic nightmare scenario.
Yet budget veterans see such disaster as the inevitable outcome absent more responsible budgeting. Former Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH), who chaired the Senate Budget Committee, put the odds of a dual shutdown-default crisis at 40% given current partisan acrimony. “Congress is sleepwalking toward the edge of a fiscal cliff,” Gregg warned.
With next week’s shutdown deadline fast approaching, congressional leaders are racing to finalize deals on the few must-pass appropriations bills. Getting those first four bills done by March 1 and postponing fights on more contentious funding would avert chaos, giving Democrats and Republicans more time to forge broader budget agreements. But opposition within both parties could derail efforts for even a temporary truce.
