Volatility reigned in the crude oil futures market last week, with prices ultimately settling higher after a tumultuous few days of trading. A complex tug-of-war played out between factors putting upward and downward pressure on oil prices.
On the bullish side, fears of supply disruptions lent support as geopolitical tensions flared in the Middle East. Israel carried out airstrikes in Gaza amid escalating military conflict with Hamas. Such regional instability typically injects a “risk premium” into oil contracts due to the potential for supply chain interruptions.
However, a strong U.S. dollar capped oil’s gains for the week. The greenback soared to 34-year highs against the Japanese yen, buoyed by stubbornly high inflation data. Because oil is priced in dollars, the surging currency makes crude more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.
The latest U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which measures inflation, rose 2.7% year-over-year in March. This elevated level of price pressures dashed hopes on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve might soon pivot to interest rate cuts to soften the economic slowdown.
Recession Fears Ease, For Now
Earlier in the week, crude futures faced downward pressure from disappointing U.S. economic growth figures and easing geopolitical concerns. First quarter GDP expanded by just 1.6% annually, far below the 2.4% consensus forecast. The lackluster data stoked fears of a potential recession, which could dampen oil demand.
However, those economic worries were soothed by remarks from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggesting the GDP data may be revised upward. The long-serving economic policymaker said the dismal first quarter figures likely “undershot” the economy’s true health.
More tangibly supporting crude prices was a major drawdown in U.S. commercial crude inventories last week. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported stockpiles plunged by 6.4 million barrels over the period. Analysts had actually forecast a modest 825,000 barrel build.
The larger-than-expected inventory decline hints at robust oil demand, providing a bullish catalyst. It helped offset lingering concerns about the impact high inflation could have on economic growth and crude consumption.
Push And Pull On Prices To Persist
Looking ahead, the crude oil markets seem poised for more back-and-forth price action driven by mixed economic signals. On one side, resilient energy demand and supply vulnerabilities could underpin prices. But stubbornly elevated inflation, a strong dollar, and the threat of a severe slowdown may continue weighing on the outlook.
Much could depend on whether consumer spending and industrial activity can remain buoyant enough to soak up available supply as price pressures persist. Oil producers themselves may face headwinds from higher input costs squeezing margins.
For the moment, hedge funds and portfolio managers seem divided on the commodity’s trajectory. Uncertainty around central bank policy paths and the fragile state of the global economy could keep crude seesawing in the weeks ahead.
Overall, last week’s whipsawing price action highlighted the delicate balance now facing the oil markets. Persistently high inflation and a strong currency are raising the risk of demand destruction, even as lingering supply tightness argues for further price gains. Holding the scales steady will require deft policymaking to navigate competing economic forces.
