As speculation builds around a potential Donald Trump presidential run in 2024, increased attention has turned to what his path to victory could look like and the authoritarian policies he might pursue if successful. However, the inverse scenario warrants equal consideration – what happens if Trump loses again in 2024?
Trump’s 2020 Election Denial Fuels Supporter Rage
After losing the 2020 election, Trump launched an aggressive misinformation campaign falsely alleging widespread voter fraud had cost him a second term. Though his claims were consistently disproven in over 60 court cases, his relentless promotion of a “stolen election” narrative fueled tremendous rage amongst his most diehard supporters.
This anger reached fever pitch on January 6th 2021, when a mob of Trump supporters violently stormed the US Capitol building in an attempt to stop the certification of election results. The unprecedented attack represented the first non-peaceful transfer of presidential power in American history. Five people died during the insurrection and over 900 rioters have since been charged with an array of federal crimes.
Trump’s Ongoing Support For Capitol Rioters Raises Concerns
In the aftermath of the Capitol attack, Trump has not only refused to condemn the rioters’ actions but has repeatedly portrayed them as “patriots” unfairly targeted by law enforcement. He has raised funds for their legal defenses and promised pardons if re-elected.
This embrace of the insurrectionists has sounded alarm bells for many watchdogs concerned over how Trump might respond to a 2024 loss. Having already inspired one violent attempt to overturn election results, could a second electoral defeat prompt further unrest amongst his followers?
Intensified Post-Loss Response Expected
When Trump surprisingly lost the 2020 popular vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016, he reacted by immediately promoting baseless claims that 3-5 million illegal ballots had been cast. This demonstrated an innate inability to accept defeat no matter how clear-cut the margin. A newly narrow loss to President Biden in 2024 would likely trigger an even more aggressive response.
Trump’s bond with his supporters has also strengthened considerably over the past six years. He has shifted the party closer to his brand of conservative populism and fashioned himself as the sole figurehead representing the grassroots voter base. This intense personal identification makes accurately predicting how either he or his followers might react to a 2024 loss increasingly fraught.
Threat Of Violence Can’t Be Ignored
While the First Amendment protects the rights of candidates to passionately contest election outcomes, Trump’s history of perpetuating dangerous falsehoods cannot be discounted.
Comments from close Trump allies like former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee warning that a 2024 loss would spark violence have only exacerbated tensions. Huckabee claimed such a result would be “the last American election that will be decided by ballots rather than bullets.”
With democratic institutions like the free press and electoral process already under sustained attack, fears over post-election violence spiraling out of control cannot simply be dismissed. Much depends on how forcefully such rhetoric and threats are challenged in the build-up to 2024.
The Need For Bipartisanship
Ultimately, ensuring the integrity and stability of America’s democracy transcends partisan politics. Leaders across the political spectrum have a responsibility to unequivocally condemn political violence and rein in inflammatory rhetoric which could incite unrest.
Biden’s DOJ must also continue impartial investigations into January 6th and potential criminality surrounding attempts to overturn the 2020 election. Respecting the rule of law and allowing facts to lead such inquiries will be pivotal in easing tensions.
Equally, securing voting rights and public trust around electoral procedures remains paramount. Constructive debate over ID requirements, vote-by-mail processes, automatic registration and other reforms need not cleave down partisan lines.
With Biden’s approval rating underwater as the 2024 race approaches, a narrow result could well transpire. This demands earnest preparation across federal and state institutions for various electoral scenarios. Supporting peaceful transfers of power should transcend politics.
The stakes surrounding the 2024 election continue escalating dramatically with each news cycle. While speculation swirls over what authoritarian policies a newly re-elected Trump might immediately pursue, the potentially chaotic fallout of him losing again can’t be downplayed.
