As the 2024 presidential election approaches, political pundits and analysts are speculating about how the country could change under a potential second term for former President Donald Trump. The Republican frontrunner and his allies have publicly discussed some of their plans across various policy areas, giving insight into the transformations America may see if Trump wins again in November. Here are 17 ways the U.S. could shift under four more years of Trump leadership.
Foreign Policy and National Security
Trump’s contentious relationship with NATO during his first term raised concerns about America’s commitment to the alliance. He frequently threatened withdrawal, notably at the 2018 summit. However, advisors like John Bolton and Mike Pence reportedly dissuaded him from following through. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has stated he is “confident that the United States will remain a staunch ally,” despite Trump’s past rhetoric. Nonetheless, Trump’s well-documented disdain for NATO suggests he may act on pulling the U.S. out during a second term.
Trump’s stance on foreign policy also extends to his vow to quickly settle the war between Russia and Ukraine if re-elected. He has claimed he will halt American aid flowing to Ukraine and ask European partners to reimburse the U.S. for stockpile rebuilding costs. Regarding Israel, the former president has voiced continued support for efforts to “destroy” Hamas, the Palestinian militant group.
The former president has also previously expressed a desire to withdraw U.S. troops from Germany, Somalia, and South Korea. According to a former Pentagon official, Trump may expand such drawdowns across Africa and potentially stop military aid to Ukraine entirely depending on his relationship with Putin.
Immigration and Border Security
A key focus for Trump is to “immediately stop the invasion of our southern border” and curb illegal immigration. He has promised a sweeping deportation campaign by directing Immigration and Customs Enforcement to undertake the largest domestic removal operation in U.S. history. Thousands of federal agents from agencies like the DEA and FBI, as well as overseas troops, could be redeployed for this effort. Trump also reaffirmed his commitment to construct more border wall infrastructure along the U.S.-Mexico line.
Trump additionally aims to expand his controversial 2017 travel ban that targeted seven Muslim-majority nations. Following the October 2022 Hamas attack on Israel, he pledged to enforce “ideological screening” for immigrants. He seeks to bar entry for “dangerous lunatics, haters, bigots, and maniacs,” along with those who “empathize with radical Islamic terrorists and extremists.”
Dismantling the Federal Bureaucracy
Trump has openly voiced his disdain for the “deep state” within the federal government. According to The New York Times, Trump plans a two-pronged approach to weaken the influence of civil servants. First, he may issue an executive order allowing the conversion of career federal employees into political appointees across all agencies. Secondly, he aims to craft a legal framework that would let his administration harness government resources to protect himself, go after political opponents, and unilaterally advance policy objectives without Congressional approval.
If re-elected, Trump would likely install thousands of loyalists in key positions across the federal bureaucracy. Organizations like the Heritage Foundation have reportedly screened some 20,000 potential “MAGA appointees” to fill roles. Trump may also seek presidential control over independent regulatory bodies like the Federal Trade Commission and Federal Communications Commission.
Economic Policies
On trade, Trump has advocated for a system of 10% tariffs on most foreign goods. Penalties could be raised against nations engaged in what his administration deems unfair trading practices, such as currency manipulation. Trump wants Congress to pass a “Trump Reciprocal Trade Act” giving the president unilateral authority to levy tariffs on any country that imposes them on the U.S.
Trump’s economic agenda particularly targets China. He has floated a four-year plan to phase out imports of essential goods like pharmaceuticals, steel, and electronics from China. He also seeks to prohibit Chinese ownership of American agriculture, energy, and tech infrastructure.
Domestically, Trump supports aggressive deregulation and tax breaks to boost fossil fuel production as part of his “drill, baby, drill” energy plan. He would increase oil and gas drilling on public lands, reverse proposed pollution limits on vehicle emissions, and aim to give America the “world’s lowest energy and electricity costs.
Social Issues
On social issues, Trump has taken firm stances viewed as curtailing LGBTQ+ rights and restricting abortion access. Regarding transgender rights, Trump wants Congress to pass a law establishing “only two genders” based on sex assigned at birth. He would block federal funding for healthcare providers offering gender-affirming hormone therapy or surgery to transgender individuals. The former president also intends to push all 50 states to outlaw such care for transgender youth.
While three Trump-appointed conservative Supreme Court justices were pivotal in overturning Roe v. Wade, the former president views a federal abortion ban as unnecessary. He believes the issue should be legislated state-by-state, criticizing six-week bans favored by some Republicans as “overly harsh.” Still, Trump would continue appointing conservative, pro-life federal judges who could further restrict abortion rights.
Homelessness, Education, and Public Safety Policies
Trump outlined his vision to address homelessness by establishing “tent cities” on federally-owned open lands. He aims to work with states to ban urban camping, giving homeless individuals a choice between receiving treatment or facing arrest. The former president also wants to reintroduce larger mental health institutions to involuntarily commit people deemed “severely mentally ill” or “dangerously deranged.
In the area of education, reports suggest Trump may seek to “terminate the Department of Education.” He intends to leverage federal funding to pressure states and school districts into abolishing teacher tenure, allowing parents to directly elect school principals, and instituting merit-based pay to reward effective teachers. Trump also wants to promote school prayer and curricula that encourage “love” rather than criticism of America.
On public safety, Trump plans to deploy the National Guard to cities grappling with high violent crime rates, like Chicago. He has called for execution of drug smugglers and human traffickers. Trump has even proposed a federal takeover of Washington D.C., dubbing it a “dirty, crime-ridden death trap.”
The Possibility of Political Violence
Some experts have warned that actions like undermining civil service safeguards could provoke an “ideological collision, potentially violent collision” unseen since the Reconstruction era in the late 1800s after the Civil War. Author Ibram X. Kendi cautioned the Washington Post he does not believe people opposed to Trump’s agenda would “go lightly into the night,” suggesting potential unrest.
These are just some of the major changes and impacts analysts have speculated America could face with Donald Trump back in the White House. Only time will tell how President Trump would govern over the next four years. But his public statements and the plans outlined by allies provide an outline of his priorities and the transformations, both domestic and international, that may be at stake in November.
