As Donald Trump gears up for another presidential run in 2024, Republican lawmakers have acted preemptively to take away one of his most consistently leveraged foreign policy threats: withdrawing the United States from NATO.
The House of Representatives, led narrowly by Republicans, passed the $886 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) on Thursday. The legislation is now headed to President Biden’s desk, where he is expected to sign it into law on Friday.
Tucked into the lengthy annual defense spending bill was a bipartisan amendment introduced by Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Tim Kaine (D-VA). The provision would require Senate or Congressional approval before any president could take the United States out of NATO unilaterally.
The move blocks a long-held pillar of Trump’s foreign policy strategy. Throughout his career, the former president has repeatedly referred to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as an unfair drain on American resources.
Trump’s Deep Skepticism of NATO Goes Back Decades
Trump’s distaste for the foundational military alliance dates back decades before his political rise. In his 2000 book The America We Deserve, he questioned NATO’s purpose and efficiency, writing that “European conflicts are not worth American lives. Pulling back from Europe would save this country millions of dollars annually.”
During his successful 2016 campaign, Trump referred to NATO as “obsolete” and “unfair economically” to the United States. The decades-old military pact was formed after World War II between North American and European allies. Its cornerstone provision holds that an attack on one member state should be considered an attack on all.
As president, Trump repeatedly threatened to have the U.S. withdraw from NATO entirely unless European members increased their defense spending. The threats caused deep concern amongst NATO allies, who feared America abandoning its leadership role in the alliance.
At a 2018 NATO summit, Trump insisted that member states step up their military budgets to ease the alliance’s burden on the U.S. “Or we will do our own thing,” he warned ominously.
Fears Mounted That a Second Trump Term Could End NATO
Last year, Trump stoked those fears anew by calling NATO a “paper tiger” amid Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. According to over a half-dozen current and former European diplomats, alarms were sounding across European capitals about a potential U.S. pullout in the event of a second Trump administration.
So far in his current run, Trump has said little publicly about updated NATO plans. However, he has privately discussed withdrawal unless demands were met, reported Rolling Stone in October. The magazine also stated Trump vowed not to appoint “NATO lovers” to senior national security roles if re-elected.
Responding to the Rolling Stone piece via Twitter, Senator Kaine said at the time: “Pulling out of NATO would be dangerous and reckless. America is stronger amongst our allies, and we need to get this signed into law.”
Some Trump Allies Seek to Reassure Wary NATO Members
Other Trump backers have downplayed the risk of a pullout. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), for example, stated bluntly: “He’s not going to do that.”
“What he will do is, he will make people pay more, and I think that will be welcome news to a lot of folks,” Graham predicted to the New York Times last week.
The successful Senate passage of the NATO protection amendment this week brought relief to lawmakers like Kaine.
“It reaffirms U.S. support for this crucial alliance that is foundational for our national security,” Kaine said. “It also sends a strong message to authoritarians around the world that the free world remains united.”
He and others emphasized NATO’s indispensable role in the West’s united support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.
Co-sponsor Senator Rubio also hailed the bill for enabling Congress to maintain oversight over potential NATO withdrawal decisions.
“We must ensure we are protecting our national interests and protecting the security of our democratic allies,” Rubio stated.
The Future of Trump’s NATO Stance Remains Unclear
What exact posture a hypothetical second Trump administration would take toward NATO remains to be seen. Trump’s barebones campaign website includes only a vague pledge to “fundamentally re-evaluating NATO’s purpose and NATO’s mission.”
Withdrawing fully from NATO has been one of Trump’s most consistently expressed foreign policy views dating back over twenty years. He has referred to the alliance as unfair, obsolete, and a waste of American funds.
However, the success of the new Congressional amendment has largely taken NATO withdrawal off the table as a realistic threat or negotiating tactic for Trump if re-elected. Lawmakers from both parties have emphasized NATO’s renewed importance, especially given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Yet Trump could still pressure NATO allies in other ways or advocate for reduced American involvement. Senators closely aligned with Trump have suggested he would push member states to increase their military budgets rather than isolating the U.S. by abandoning the pact altogether.
