Rob Bauer, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, sent an ominous warning this week that civilians in Western nations should begin preparing for a potential “all-out war” with Russia. His blunt remarks come amidst growing fears that the long-simmering tensions between Russia and the West could ultimately spiral into a direct military clash.
Speaking at a defense forum, Bauer stated that while NATO forces are actively training and preparing their militaries for possible conflicts, average citizens also need to wrap their heads around the idea that peace in Europe can no longer be taken for granted.
“We have to realize it’s not a given that we are in peace,” Bauer commented. “And that’s why we [NATO forces] are preparing for a conflict with Russia. But the discussion is much wider. It is also the industrial base and also the people that have to understand they play a role.”
Bauer pointed to Sweden’s recent call for its general population to begin preparing for potential disruptions and war as a prudent example other Western nations should potentially follow. “It starts there,” Bauer said. “The realization that not everything is plannable and not everything is going to be hunky dory in the next 20 years.”
The stark warnings from the top NATO military official come just as the Alliance is set to launch its largest wargames exercises since the end of the Cold War. The “Steadfast Noon” exercises, running from October 17th through October 30th, will simulate NATO’s response to a theoretical Russian invasion of alliance territory. Over 50 aircraft and 60 ships will participate, alongside thousands of ground troops training to repulse Russian advances.
NATO Flexes Its Muscles Amidst Growing Tensions
Bauer’s calls for civilians to ready themselves for potential conflicts with Russia align with other signs NATO is actively preparing its forces for possible real-world skirmishes in the near future.
The German newspaper Bild recently reported the German Bundeswehr is actively gaming out scenarios involving hybrid Russian attacks on NATO’s eastern flank territories. An unnamed source told Bild that military assessments indicate Russia could be ready to initiate hostilities as early as February 2023.
NATO is also prepping to hold its largest wargames exercises since the conclusion of the Cold War next February. The still-unnamed exercises will involve around 90,000 troops practicing to respond to a hypothetical Russian attack on Alliance territory.
Bauer doubling down on preparing civilians for conflict indicates NATO officials see a real possibility for military escalations with the Russian Federation in the next few years. His comments urging average citizens to ready themselves for war also suggest the Alliance may be worried about faltering political and public support for Ukraine within Western nations.
Predictions of Future NATO-Russia Clashes
Bauer’s blunt language about readying for war comes against the backdrop of military aid to Ukraine from both the United States and European Union beginning to slow and become more sporadic. Earlier this month, the EU announced delays to its planned rollout of a new Ukraine military aid package after objections from Italy’s newly elected right-wing government.
Some geopolitical experts, such as German defense analyst Dr. Franz Stefan Gady, believe direct conflict between Russia and NATO within the next decade is extremely likely. In interviews, Gady has pointed to simulations showing NATO would struggle to effectively defend Baltic NATO members like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania from hypothetical Russian invasions. With those weaknesses exposed, Gady believes Russia could be tempted to test NATO’s willingness to militarily enforce its Article 5 collective defense obligations in the next 5-8 years.
While military clashes between nuclear-armed NATO and Russia would be catastrophic for global security, Bauer’s warnings indicate NATO officials see the chances for conflict continuing to rise. Bauer also made it clear that average citizens have a responsibility to ready themselves so civilian populations are not left scrambling in the run-up to any potential future clashes.
