Following her stronger-than-expected second place finish behind Donald Trump in the New Hampshire Republican primary, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley now has her sights set on pulling off an upset victory in her home state’s primary on February 24th.
While Haley emerged from New Hampshire as Trump’s most formidable challenger so far, she faces an uphill climb in the more conservative, evangelical South Carolina. Polls show Trump with a commanding lead there, but Haley hopes her connections as a former two-term governor can narrow that gap.
Though seen by many as a long shot, Haley believes she’s on track for a collision course with the former president in South Carolina that could reshape the Republican nomination race. President Biden and other Democrats may be ready to declare Trump the presumptive nominee, but Haley thinks reports of her campaign’s demise are premature.
Launching Ads and Rallies To Gain Traction in South Carolina
Following her New Hampshire performance that held Trump to just a two point victory, Haley is now going all-in on her home state by launching television ads there starting this Wednesday. She has also scheduled a campaign rally on Wednesday evening near Charleston, looking to capitalize on any momentum coming off the Granite State.
While Nevada and the Virgin Islands also hold Republican contests in February, they involve relatively few delegates and Trump is largely bypassing them to focus on South Carolina. Consequently, Haley’s window to overtake the frontrunner is narrowing to a single state where she once held statewide office.
Unlike New Hampshire’s sizable moderate and independent voting blocs that lifted her to a strong second place, South Carolina’s heavily conservative and evangelical electorate poses a tougher test for Haley. In 2016, only 19% of South Carolina Republican primary voters identified as moderate or liberal compared to 34% in this year’s New Hampshire GOP contest.
Among Granite State conservatives that are more common in South Carolina, Trump soundly defeated Haley by a 70% to 28% margin on Tuesday. To win her home state primary, she will need a seismic shift among conservatives and previously disengaged general election voters unwilling to participate in the state’s early Democratic primary.
Home State Advantage Up Against Formidable Trump Lead
As she works to gain traction in the Palmetto State over the next month, Haley can take some solace from her initial 2010 primary victory as a major underdog for South Carolina governor. However, that year she enjoyed endorsements from influential conservatives like Sarah Palin which buoyed her campaign.
This time around, almost all of South Carolina’s Republican establishment has already sided with Trump, including Senator Tim Scott whom Haley herself appointed in 2013. The state’s GOP House members are also firmly behind the former president along with sitting Governor Henry McMaster.
Despite her connections as a former governor, Haley faces the daunting task of overcoming a substantial polling deficit in a more ideologically unfavorable electorate. Currently, South Carolina surveys uniformly show Trump holding over a 20 point lead just weeks before voting begins.
To close that gap, Haley needs a surge in turnout from the significant number of registered voters in South Carolina unaffiliated with either major party. These voters are permitted to vote in the Republican primary so long as they do not participate in the state’s Democratic primary on February 3rd.
With Biden aggressively courting South Carolina Democratic voters though, he could be indirectly sinking Haley’s strategy. By generating enthusiasm for the Democratic contest, fewer voters may be left to consider crossing over into the later GOP primary to support Haley.
Ugly Attacks Emerge as Trump Seeks Knockout Blow
In many ways, the race is now following South Carolina’s historical penchant for racially charged mudslinging seen in past nomination battles. Trump and his loyalists have already begun aiming personal potshots at Haley, alluding to previous unfounded accusations around her marriage she faced in 2010.
The attacks have taken on a xenophobic flavor by pointedly emphasizing Haley’s first name, Nimrata, rather than the Nikki name she uses professionally. It mirrors previous racist smears attempted against John McCain in South Carolina by then-opponent George W. Bush during the 2000 Republican primary.
While the state Republican party hoped their early primary would play a decisive role when they scheduled it years ago, few imagined it might come down to an ugly grudge match between a former president and his once-trusted ambassador taking place largely on his turf.
Most expect Trump to successfully mobilize his ardent supporters to deliver a knockout blow to Haley’s campaign on February 24th. But Haley has staked her entire strategy on pulling off an improbable upset that would immediately reshape the battle for the Republican nomination heading into Super Tuesday.
Her performance in New Hampshire may have given pause to those ready to coronate Trump once again as the GOP standard bearer. As underwhelming as his victory was though, Haley ultimately faces stacked odds trying to paint South Carolina as anything less than his firewall against her continuation in the race.
