New Hampshire’s highly anticipated presidential primary kicked off Tuesday morning as voters flocked to cast the first ballots in the first primary of the hotly contested 2024 presidential election.
The Republican field has narrowed to a two-person race between former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropped out on Sunday after a disappointing second place finish in the Iowa caucuses last week. He threw his support behind Trump, who won Iowa decisively.
The stakes are high for both remaining candidates as they vie for momentum heading into the next primaries in Nevada and South Carolina later this month. Haley in particular needs a strong showing in New Hampshire to prove she can pose a real challenge to Trump, who holds a commanding lead in polls.
“I think it puts a nail in her coffin,” said veteran GOP strategist Mike Dennehy. “I don’t think she’ll be able to keep Trump under 50%. And I think there’s a very good chance that Trump hits 60% on Tuesday, which will signal the end of the Haley campaign and virtually seal the deal for the Trump nomination.
However, with independents making up a sizable chunk of New Hampshire voters, some see an opening for Haley. Many, if not most, of DeSantis voters are going to migrate over to Trump. And so it’s critical for Haley to do well in New Hampshire to give her some momentum heading into South Carolina,” said Republican consultant Jim Merrill.
As voters headed to the polls early Tuesday, Trump predicted Haley would drop out after the primary. “We started off with 13 [candidates] and now we’re down to two people,” he said at a rally Monday night. “And I think one person will be gone probably tomorrow.”
Haley pushed back against Trump’s claim that she would bow out after New Hampshire, saying “I don’t do what he tells me to do.” She vowed to continue campaigning regardless of the outcome.
How the Caucuses and Primaries Work
The New Hampshire primary is the second nominating contest in the presidential cycle after last week’s Iowa caucuses. But how exactly do the caucuses and primaries work?
Caucuses function much like primaries in that residents cast ballots and the candidate with the most votes wins. But the process is more intricate, involving discussion of the candidates and picking convention delegates.
Iowa’s Democratic caucus required participants to stand in groups based on their preferred candidate. Only candidates receiving more than 15% support were considered viable. After the initial vote, voters whose candidates weren’t viable could realign with a different group. Finally, delegates were awarded to each viable candidate based on their share of support.
The Republican Iowa caucus was simpler – voters wrote their preferred candidate on a ballot and the results were tabulated like a traditional election.
Primaries are more straightforward elections run by state governments. Some states hold open primaries where voters can choose either party’s ballot. Others have closed primaries restricted to registered party members.
The outcomes help determine how many delegates each candidate receives at their party’s nominating convention. The goal is to rack up a majority of pledged delegates during the primary season.
Trump vs. Haley: Where They Stand
Trump remains the clear frontrunner after notching a commanding victory in Iowa, winning 31 of the state’s 32 counties. Haley finished a distant third behind DeSantis.
The former president now looks to replicate that success in New Hampshire, where polls show him leading Haley by double digits. An average of recent surveys compiled by RealClearPolitics gives Trump 56% support compared to Haley’s 25%.
Trump has secured several significant endorsements, including South Carolina Senators Tim Scott and Lindsey Graham. Haley served as governor of South Carolina from 2011-2017.
Haley’s campaign is downplaying expectations in New Hampshire and looking ahead to friendlier territory in the South. Her team recently announced raising $1.5 million since the DeSantis dropout.
“Despite the media narrative, there is significant fertile ground for Nikki,” wrote campaign manager Betsy Ankney. “After Super Tuesday, we will have a very good picture of where this race stands. At that point, millions of Americans in 26 states and territories will have voted.”
Upcoming Primaries Crucial to Shaping Race
After New Hampshire, the next primaries are February 24 in Nevada and South Carolina. Then it’s on to the bevy of states voting on Super Tuesday, March 5, when over a dozen states spanning the country hold primaries and caucuses.
Super Tuesday is considered a pivotal point when the race solidifies and frontrunners typically emerge. States participating include powerhouses like California, Texas, Virginia, North Carolina and Massachusetts.
Other delegate-rich primaries will follow in March and April, including Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Georgia. The process continues all the way to June, when the final states wrap up voting.
The eventual nominee will be formally selected at each party’s national convention in July, where delegates chosen through the primaries convene to make it official.
Heading into November, polls show both Trump and Haley leading President Joe Biden in hypothetical matchups. Biden suffers from low approval ratings amid concerns over inflation and the economy.
But Democrats are voicing increasing worries about Trump securing the nomination, believing his divisive reputation could energize left-leaning voters. Haley is seen as a stronger general election candidate who could appeal to moderates.
Much will hinge on the coming primaries and whether Haley can emerge as a consensus alternative. For now, Trump remains in the driver’s seat while Haley searches for openings to slow his momentum. Their bitter primary battle will likely get even more heated as voting gets underway.
New Hampshire Voters Weigh In on Race
Voters turning out early Tuesday offered mixed opinions about the Republican field. Here’s what some had to say as they cast ballots:
Jane Smith, 41, Londonderry:
“I voted for Nikki Haley. She’s smart, has great experience and presents a fresh face for the party. I voted Republican down the ballot but I just can’t support Trump after the chaos of his presidency. Haley seems like someone who could unite the country after the divisions of recent years.”
Mike Jones, 55, Merrimack:
“Trump got my vote. He did a great job with the economy before COVID hit and really put America first when so many politicians just talk about it. The establishment needs shaking up and he’s the one to do it. I voted for him twice and I’ll keep supporting him as long as he runs.”
Michelle Davis, 36, Concord:
“I’m independent but voted Republican this time. I went back and forth between Trump and Haley. I like Haley’s background but ultimately decided to go with Trump. He has the name recognition and support. Beating Biden has to be priority number one and Trump gives us the best shot at that.”
Chris Miller, 49, Manchester:
“I left the Republican Party after Trump and now consider myself independent. This time I requested a Democratic ballot and voted for Biden. Trump did so much damage that I can’t justify voting Republican again until the party thoroughly rejects him and the direction he took things.”
Emily Rodriguez, 29, Nashua:
“I’ve always voted Republican but went with Haley this time. She seems reasonable and focused on real policy instead of all the drama around Trump. I think she could appeal to more people in the general election against Biden. But I’ll support whoever the nominee is.”
New Hampshire Voters Prioritize Beating Biden
Many voters indicated beating President Biden was their top priority, even some who preferred Haley expressed doubts she could match Trump’s ability to turn out the Republican base.
Biden’s weak approval ratings have dragged down Democrats nationwide, giving Republicans hope of retaking both houses of Congress in the 2024 elections.
But Democrats see Trump’s loyalty among the GOP grassroots as a potential liability. Recent polls have shown both Haley and DeSantis faring better against Biden.
If Haley can’t close the gap with Trump soon, calls for her to drop out and clear his path may ramp up. But her backers believe once the race expands beyond the early states, there’s still time to consolidate party support.
For now, all eyes are on New Hampshire as the first primary signals where Republicans across the country stand. A convincing Trump win would make him a near sure-bet for the nomination. But a surprise Haley upset could turn the race upside down and inject new uncertainty into the Republican field.
