A string of apparent Russian military mishaps resulting in bombs and missiles falling on Russian territory has prompted speculation about the causes and heightened concerns about civilian safety near military sites.
Over the past few weeks, multiple Russian aerial bombs and cruise missiles have reportedly fallen short of their targets in Ukraine, instead exploding or being discovered, unexploded, in towns and rural areas inside Russia itself. While not all incidents could be independently confirmed, local Russian authorities have acknowledged some of them. The succession of similar occurrences raises questions about whether systemic issues, human error, technical faults or some combination thereof might be contributing factors.
The most recent event, according to the independent Russian Telegram news channel ASTRA, took place on January 27th when two Soviet-designed FAB-250 aerial bombs were dropped over the city of Belgorod, located about 18 miles from the Ukrainian border. The explosives did not detonate or lead to any casualties, and were subsequently defused, ASTRA reported.
Other incidents seem to follow a similar fact pattern of pilots or weapons operators somehow failing to reach intended targets in Ukraine.
Earlier in January, Russian missiles plunged to earth twice in one day in the Krasnodar region, which lies just over 100 miles from occupied Ukrainian territory. Local emergency services sources cited in the ASTRA report stated the Kalibr cruise missiles fell in empty fields, sparing surrounding villages from damage.
Going further back, a shocking video from early January showed the aftermath of another Russian Air Force error – the bombing of Petropavlovka village in the Voronezh Oblast region. The cratered ground and collapsed residential buildings left at least four injured, per official statements.
While not common, such mistakes by militaries during combat do happen from time to time. Still, the concentration of these events across civilian spaces in southwestern Russia raises some eyebrows.
Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of Russia’s National Defense magazine, downplayed the spate of domestic misfires as statistically inevitable, given the intensity of missile attacks against Ukraine over the past year.
However, military analysts note that the modern Kalibr cruise missiles purportedly used in many strikes should have strong navigation capabilities and flight accuracy. The repetitive incidents spark questions around maintenance, training and readiness across units.
Other experts point to dated Soviet munitions still in use as a potential factor. They highlight diminishing stocks of higher precision modern weapons after a year of attritional warfare against NATO-backed Ukrainian forces.
Of course, the fog of war means outside observers have limited perspective on the exact causes underlying individual events.
While likely accidental, Russia’s apparent struggle to control its aerial weapons far from the frontlines sows fear among citizens living or working near military sites. It also focuses attention on the government’s capacity to prevent future mistakes and respond quickly when they inevitably occur.
So far, the Kremlin has not addressed the recent domestic bombings publicly besides formulaic after-action reports. This follows customary Russian military protocol to keep combat details tightly guarded. However, the lack of transparency around threats to civilians could undermine public trust if unexplained accidents persist.
Some western commentators alternatively speculate whether Ukrainian special forces or partisans might clandestinely be playing some role in explosions inside Russia. For now, evidence to evaluate these theories is lacking on both sides. Independent verification of specific blame seems unlikely given the circumstances.
Nevertheless, an increasingly nervous population exposed to stray missiles may start demanding more protection and answers from Moscow in the weeks ahead. Growing calls for accountability and resourcing could add further pressure to Russia’s already overstretched military bureaucracy.
In the bigger picture, the developing situation presents a public relations challenge for Russia’s defense establishment. As the invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, there are fresh indications that materiel reliability, skilled manpower and rigid control procedures are emerging pain points for the Russian war machine.
Time will tell whether the Kremlin undertakes reforms to strengthen weapons guidance technology, heighten deployment protocols or improve damage control flows with local constituencies. For Russian commanders, restoring sure-handed confidence in the missile units under their stewardship could be vital for sustaining morale as the grinding conflict continues.
