From COVID-darlings to biotech bargain bin – it’s been a dizzying plunge for pharmaceutical powerhouses Pfizer and Moderna over the past year. But don’t write these former pandemic profiteers off just yet. According to savvy stock scouts, the battered biotech behemoths could be raising from the ashes for a roaring resurgence.
It was a rags-to-riches-to-rags story for Pfizer in the COVID era. The maker of the Comirnaty vaccine soared to dizzying heights, reaching a jaw-dropping $100 billion-plus in annual revenue as its coronavirus-crusherolutionized the pandemic fight. But those halcyon days are done, with earnings plummeting back to earth as demand for the once-essential shot evaporates.
Adding injury to insult, Pfizer is staring down a $17 billion revenue black hole in the coming years as several of its aging blockbuster treatments lose patent protection and get walloped by generic competition. It’s no wonder the pharmaceutical titan’s stock has been battered, plunging over 30% in just the last 12 months alone.
But the COVID cash-cult bubble may have simply masked an even more lucrative opportunity for Pfizer. With its extensive resources pivoting to an ambitious new growth strategy, the company could soon have the ultimate biotech bull revival on its hands.
On one front, Pfizer is feverishly refreshing its product pipeline through in-house R&D. Last year alone, it racked up a stunning 9 approvals for new molecular therapies and expanded uses for existing drugs. If these rookie rollouts reach their multi-billion dollar sales potential, the biopharma juggernaut projects they could more than offset those looming patent losses, generating a $20 billion bounty by 2030.
However, Pfizer’s biggest revival gambit may be its $43 billion mega-acquisition of biotech Seagen. The audacious deal gave the pharmaceutical giant an entree into the lucrative oncology market virtually overnight, absorbing 4 already-commercialized Seagen cancer drugs and an array of early and late-stage candidates.
Uncowed by the staggering price tag, Pfizer is betting big that its new oncological army could breed upwards of 8 multi-billion dollar blockbuster treatments by the decade’s end. Between its bustling new pipeline and the Seagen scoring coup, Pfizer seems determined to go from COVID-era cult hero to a conquering force in cancer therapy and beyond.
Meanwhile, over in Cambridge, Pfizer’s crosstown mRNA rival Moderna is doubling down on novel technology to orchestrate its own stunning comeback. After watching its COVID bonanza shrivel, the biotech disruptor is going all-in on a futuristic respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine called mRNA-1345 that could soon start printing profits.
While conventional pharma giants like Pfizer and GSK are finally starting to rollout their own long-awaited RSV shots, those clunky old-school injections could get beaten at their own game by Moderna’s sleeker mRNA solution. The company boasts that mRNA-1345 will be supplied in cutting-edge pre-filled syringes primed for smoother, quicker vaccination.
Analysts have circled May 12 on their calendars as the likely date for an anticipated FDA greenlight, with a crucial CDC committee vote on recommending the shot for adults expected to follow quickly after on June 28. With a potential multi-billion dollar market primed to embrace the world’s maiden RSV vaccine, Moderna has rosily forecast that mRNA-1345 could spark a return to revenue growth as soon as 2025, with break-even on the horizon just a year later.
But Moderna sees its RSV wunderkind as just the opening salvo in a coming bombardment of mRNA-derived therapies targeting everything from seasonal flu to cancer. The company recently wrapped testing on an audacious mRNA-1010 program aiming to finally conquer the insidious influenza virus with a future-proof single-shot vaccine, setting up a likely FDA submission later this year.
Further ahead, Moderna has even grander gambits cooking like mRNA-1083 (a combined flu/COVID-19 vaccine), mRNA-1647 (a novel cytomegalovirus therapy), and maybe most tantalizing of all – mRNA-4157, an experimental cancer vaccine that could give the biotech’s short-sellers a rude re-awakening should it pan out.
So while the past year has brought misery for the MRNA millionaires and vax-stonk zealots who rode the COVID craze, a new chapter could be opening for Pfizer, Moderna, and the biotech vanguard. Whether chasing blockbuster RSV riches, gunning to exterminate influenza once and for all, or finally vanquishing the scourge of cancer, these drug developers seem hellbent on a furious fight to reclaim their pandemic-era glory.
The boundless future potential, however, comes with equal portions of risk and doubt for biotech’s recovering heavyweights. Any number of clinical, regulatory, or commercial pitfalls could instantly derail their grand comeback visions. And even if all those shiny new drug approvals materialize, fickle investors could still shrug and move on to the next big thing.
But for the daring contrarians willing to buy when the herd sells, the fallen titans of Pfizer and Moderna could represent the unpolished gems that investment dreams are made of. After all, what’s more exhilarating than the idea of mRNA’s disruptive masterminds and pharma’s dinosaurs joining forces to wage an all-out offensive against humanity’s most daunting disease scourges? If they can pull it off, this resurrection story could deliver biotech’s juiciest plot twist of the decade.
