Confidential documents obtained by the German newspaper Bild suggest Russia is planning a hybrid war against NATO countries as early as this February. The attack would target NATO’s eastern flank, potentially sparking the greatest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the report as “fake news.” However, Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine and NATO tensions continue to escalate. Here’s an overview of the alleged invasion plans and Europe’s readiness for war:
The Calm Before the Storm
According to the classified Bundeswehr document, Russia’s assault on the West would unfold over the course of 2024, culminating in a direct clash with NATO forces in 2025.
The Timeline:
February 2024: Russia launches a new military mobilization, drafting 200,000 additional troops.
Spring 2024: Bolstered by wavering Western support for Kyiv, Russia secures victories in Ukraine, pushing back the Ukrainian military.
July 2024: Russia unleashes cyberattacks and hybrid warfare against the West, targeting the Baltics.
October 2024: Russia deploys troops and missiles to Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave bordered by Poland and Lithuania.
December 2024: Russia provokes “border conflicts” and violence in the Suwalki Gap, the strategic border region between Poland and Lithuania.
November 2024: After the U.S. presidential election, Russia invades NATO territory, mirroring its 2014 annexation of Crimea.
May 2025: NATO deploys 300,000 troops, including 30,000 German soldiers, to its eastern flank. Direct clashes between Russian and NATO forces ensue.
The document depicts a steady escalation, with tensions peaking in October 2024. By December, Russia is predicted to incite conflict in the Suwalki Gap, the 60-mile border between Poland and Lithuania. As the only land connection between the Baltics and other NATO countries, it is a strategically vital region.
Analysts see the scenario as plausible, if extremely concerning. A Russian assault on NATO territory could follow the playbook of its 2014 annexation of Crimea. By launching attacks immediately after the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Kremlin may hope to capitalize on leadership uncertainties.
The question is whether NATO’s European forces could repel a Russian invasion. Warnings of the alliance’s unpreparedness continue to mount.
Gaps in Europe’s Defenses
Independent military assessments concur – Russia could seize the Baltic states in days. But it would take NATO weeks to mobilize a response.
To deter aggression, the U.S. has deployed “tripwire” forces in the Baltics. Their role is to immediately trigger NATO’s collective defense pact if Russia attacks.
Last month, Germany announced plans to base a permanent brigade in Lithuania, its first permanent foreign deployment since WWII. However, the brigade won’t be combat-ready until 2027.
Unfortunately, recent reports reveal Europe’s militaries are in no shape for a major war with Russia. After arming Ukraine, NATO countries are low on ammunition and weapons.
Germany’s situation is particularly dire. Despite botched defense reforms, it has sent most of its ammunition to Ukraine. The German army may only have enough artillery shells for two days of full-scale fighting. Its fleet of Leopard tanks has shrunk to just 400, mostly in disrepair.
Britain’s army is scarcely better equipped. According to reports, it would expend all ammunition after one day of combat.
The West has invested too little in military production capacities. In September 2022, NATO countries promised Ukraine a million 155mm artillery rounds by March. So far, they have only delivered 400,000. Reequipping Europe’s depleted armies could take years.
The classified document underscores the dangers of Russia’s aggression toward NATO. Yet the reality of Europe’s unpreparedness is equally concerning. To avoid catastrophe, NATO must reinforce itself militarily and deter Russian escalation through unified resolve. But there are no easy solutions as the drums of war keep beating.
