The war in Ukraine, which began when Russia invaded in February 2022, could ultimately end in a stalemate similar to the outcome of the Korean War, says retired U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis. In a recent radio interview, Stavridis predicted the conflict will drag on through 2023, but by the end of the year both sides may be ready to negotiate and settle into an uneasy peace, with Russia still controlling Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine.
This assessment comes as Ukraine and Russia enter their second year of brutal trench warfare. The fighting has exhausted troops on both sides and devastated Ukraine’s infrastructure and economy. While Ukraine has made some gains in recent months with the help of Western weapons, Russia still occupies around 18% of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory.
“Ultimately, this will end like the Korean War, meaning that Russia will probably still have control of some portion of Ukraine, Crimea, the land bridge to Russia,” Stavridis said. The Korean War ended in 1953 after three years of fighting with an armistice that split the Korean Peninsula along the 38th parallel, leaving a communist North Korea and democratic South Korea divided much as they are today.
Similarly, even if Ukraine succeeds in pushing Russia back, Stavridis believes a peace deal could leave Russia in control of Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, as well as a “land bridge” connecting Russia to Crimea across southeastern Ukraine.
Driving both sides to eventual negotiations will be “exhaustion,” Stavridis said, as the war’s toll mounts. Russia in particular has suffered from devastating Western sanctions, though Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure have also been battered. Stavridis thinks after the 2024 U.S. elections, the moment could be ripe for talks.
Progress Toward Negotiations Has Stalled
Early on, Ukraine expressed some openness to negotiations, but talks have not begun in earnest. In April 2022, Ukraine and Russia held preliminary talks in Turkey, but they quickly stalled out.
In September 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree stating “the impossibility of conducting negotiations” with Russian President Vladimir Putin after Russia staged referendums to annex occupied Ukrainian territories.
Zelensky did put forward a 10-point “peace formula” in November 2022. It called for a complete Russian withdrawal, the release of prisoners, and Ukraine’s territorial integrity, among other conditions. But Russia rejected this proposal out of hand.
Without a change in Russia’s stance, productive ceasefire talks appear unlikely for now. Both sides seem determined to press their advantage militarily in 2023. But the hurdles to victory for either grow.
Russia’s Offensive Bogged Down But Inflicting Damage
After failing to take Kyiv early on, Russia redirected its offensive to eastern and southern Ukraine, where it has made slow, grinding progress. Intense fighting continues around the city of Bakhmut in the Donbas. Russia also still occupies Kherson and most of neighboring Zaporizhzhia after sweeping up from Crimea.
But Ukrainian resistance has frustrated Russia’s campaign. Moscow has resorted to massive artillery barrages and missile strikes on infrastructure and civilian areas rather than risk large troop movements. These tactics have knocked out heat and power across Ukraine, worsening an already dire humanitarian crisis, but have failed to break Ukraine’s will.
Russia still retains vast military advantages over Ukraine in terms of manpower, equipment and resources. But its combat losses have been enormous, with tens of thousands killed. Maintaining its battered battalions in the field is becoming increasingly difficult.
Ukraine Rolling Back Gains Under New Western Aid
With billions in aid and advanced weapons from the U.S. and NATO allies, Ukraine has begun counterattacking in the northeast and south. Using long-range HIMARS rockets and upgraded tanks, Ukraine dealt Russia stinging defeats around Kharkiv in September and liberated Kherson city in November.
These victories demonstrate Ukraine’s determination to reclaim its internationally recognized borders. But Russia’s forces are now dug into heavily fortified positions that will require bloody urban warfare to dislodge. And Russia still has cards left to play, including hypersonic missiles, cyberattacks and possibly chemical or nuclear weapons.
Ukraine’s losses, too, have been massive, with up to 13,000 troops killed. Keeping its depleted brigades supplied and reinforced may prove challenging. Motivating exhausted recruits for dangerous new offensives could also test Ukraine’s morale.
No End in Sight for Putin
While cracks have begun to show in Russia’s political and military command, there are no signs yet that Vladimir Putin’s grip on power is slipping. Despite Russia’s losses on the battlefield and withering sanctions, Putin’sinner circle remains loyal. Dissent is swiftly punished.
Putin is deeply invested in the Ukraine invasion, which he believes will secure his legacy as a gatherer of Russian lands. He is unlikely to accept defeat or compromise unless faced with political revolution or dire military reversals. So far, neither threat looms large.
With both sides locked in and the outcome of the war still highly uncertain, negotiations seem distant. But if exhaustion sets in over 2023, admiral Stavridis may prove right that the door to diplomacy could inch open late in the year. Until then, more bloodshed likely awaits.
