CONCORD, N.H. – Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley suffered an expected yet dispiriting defeat to Donald Trump in the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday, but she remained defiant in pledging to soldier on in her underdog challenge to the former president.
With 95% of precincts reporting, Trump captured a decisive 54% of the vote compared to Haley’s 45% – mirroring pre-election polls that gave him a consistent single-digit edge in the Granite State.
“We love you, New Hampshire!” a jubilant Trump told supporters at his victory party in Nashua, even as he mocked Haley for claiming a moral victory in her earlier remarks.
But speaking to her backers in Concord, Haley insisted the race was “far from over” despite Trump’s growing dominance.
“The political class wants a coronation,” she said. “But I have news for them – this fight has only just begun.”
Haley’s show of defiance frustrated Trump allies, who urged her to stand down and coalesce behind the former president rather than drag out an increasingly uphill nomination battle.
“It’s over and we all know it,” tweeted Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), arguing New Hampshire was Haley’s “best chance” to win a primary or caucus contest.
Nonetheless, Haley and her team believe a prolonged primary fight could boost her profile and shape the future ideological direction of the Republican Party, even if she has little chance of toppling Trump’s frontrunner status at this stage.
How Trump Won New Hampshire
Tuesday’s outcome in the Granite State was foreshadowed for weeks by polls consistently showing Trump with a high single-digit advantage.
His fiery populist rhetoric and promises to reverse Biden administration policies energized loyal supporters across New Hampshire, drawing large and raucous crowds during final weekend rallies in Manchester, Nashua and Londonderry.
“New Hampshire knows me very well, and together we’re going to take back our country!” Trump thundered before over 5,000 cheering supporters on Sunday night in Bedford.
He also likely benefitted from warm residual feelings stemming from his commanding 2016 general election victory here over Hillary Clinton – the first time a Republican presidential candidate had carried New Hampshire since 2000.
By contrast, Haley struggled to puncture Trump’s stalwart base of support despite being relatively well-funded and liked. Her pragmatic, inclusive tone largely fell flat with GOP primary voters more drawn to Trump’s confrontational, uncompromising style.
“She’s just not an authentic champion of the Trump agenda,” said Republican strategist Jim Merrill, based in New Hampshire. “Voters recognize that and lined up behind the real deal.”
What’s Next For Haley’s Uphill Challenge
Barring a political earthquake, most analysts see virtually no path for Haley to wrest the 2024 nomination away from Trump at this late stage.
But by soldiering on after her expected New Hampshire defeat, Haley aims to promote her vision in states to come while forcing Trump to expend time and resources in the primary rather than focusing squarely on the general election.
“Every day we make Trump get off the couch is a good day,” said one Haley adviser.
Her next major opportunity comes in the South Carolina primary on February 25th. As the former governor, Haley is hoping for a strong showing that injects new life into her flagging campaign.
“We’re headed straight to South Carolina where Nikki’s uplifting message will shine through,” said campaign manager Jeff Roe.
But polls show Trump dominating there as well, leveraging his deep support from white evangelical voters that make up a majority of the state’s GOP electorate.
Without a sudden and enormous polling shift, Haley would likely need a miracle to pull off a South Carolina upset victory.
After that comes Super Tuesday on March 3rd, when voters across 14 states from California to Massachusetts will cast primary ballots. Trump holds commanding leads in most of those contests.
With Trump’s nomination appearing pre-ordained, some Haley allies have floated she could mount an independent general election campaign. But Haley has flatly rejected that idea to this point.
“The only way to defeat Joe Biden is through a united Republican Party,” she reiterated in her New Hampshire election night speech.
As the primary rolls on, the former South Carolina governor seems intent on not granting Trump an easy coronation – regardless of the ultimate outcome.
