An odd February warm-up is bringing more than just higher temperatures to Michigan this week. The National Weather Service has updated its forecast, now calling for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail on Tuesday.
These severe storms have the potential to produce hail up to one inch in diameter and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph. The storms are expected to hit in two rounds – one in the early morning hours on Tuesday and another in the evening into early Wednesday.
Storms will be possible Tuesday morning after 3 a.m. and again Tuesday evening after 7 p.m.,” said meteorologists from the National Weather Service office in Grand Rapids. Hail will be possible with the morning storms, and hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with the evening/overnight storms.”
Two Rounds of Potentially Damaging Storms
The first round of possible severe storms is forecast to move through lower Michigan between 3 AM and 9 AM on Tuesday morning. These early morning storms bring the threat of hail up to one inch in diameter.
After a break in activity during the day, another more significant severe weather threat emerges Tuesday evening. This second round occurring between 7 PM Tuesday and 2 AM Wednesday carries the hazards of 60 mph wind gusts in addition to more large hail.
Highest Risk Areas in Southern Lower Michigan
While much of lower Michigan faces some severe weather risk on Tuesday, the most likely areas to experience the strongest storms are from about Interstate 96 southward. Cities along this corridor like Holland, Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Jackson and South Haven could see power outages, downed trees and property damage if these wind gusts and large hail become a reality.
Further north in cities like Lansing, Flint and Saginaw, the severe threat lessens a bit. But northern areas are still in line to receive heavy rainfall and isolated severe storms. Residents statewide should prepare for a noisy Tuesday featuring rumbles of thunder and downpours. Have a way to receive weather alerts if any warnings are issued.
Slow-Moving Front Providing Fuel for Storms
So why is February, typically one of Michigan’s coldest and snowiest months, flirting with 60 mph thunderstorm winds more typical of spring? It all comes down to an odd weather pattern setting up this week. A strong area of high pressure centered over southeast Canada is pulling abnormally warm and humid air northward into the Great Lakes region.
Meanwhile, a potent cold front continues to edge eastward across the Midwest. This boundary between warm and cold air often triggers stormy weather. And with record warmth preceding the front by over 15 degrees, significant energy will be available for any storms that develop along the boundary.
This front’s slow movement means it could spark multiple rounds of wet weather. And with extreme temperature contrasts in place, keeping the ingredients for severe thunderstorms possible for over 12 hours on Tuesday. Residents should remain weather aware and check for updates throughout the event Tuesday. Have phone alerts enabled and a way to receive warnings if issued.
Stay with opportuneist.com as this forecast evolves. More updates will be issued on both the record warmth and severe weather threats as new model data arrives.
