Relations between Russia and Japan have taken a turn for the worse after Russia warned of “grave consequences” should Japan decide to provide Patriot air defense missile systems to Ukraine. This stern warning comes from Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Wednesday.
It reflects the further deterioration of an already strained relationship since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Japan, like many other Western nations, responded to the unprovoked attack by joining in imposing sweeping economic sanctions on Russia. The potential provision of advanced defensive weapons to Russia’s adversary pushes tensions higher still.
The sophisticated American-made Patriot surface-to-air missile system would significantly boost Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against aerial attacks. Russia has relied heavily on missiles and Iranian-supplied drones to strike civilian infrastructure and terrorize Ukrainians. The Kremlin sees limiting Ukraine’s defenses as key to gaining battlefield advantage after failing to secure a quick victory.
By bolstering Ukraine’s military capabilities, Japan and other allies undermine Russia’s brutal strategies. The missiles would allow Ukraine to shoot down incoming threats more effectively. Their range provides protection over a wider area. Advanced radar and tracking technology improves accuracy as well. All diminish Russia’s ability to achieve air superiority.
Unsurprisingly, Russia views any such assistance as unacceptable. Despite framing the confrontation over Ukraine in stark Cold War tropes, the Kremlin still clings to the pretense that it does not constitute full-scale war. Admitting the scale of foreign involvement poke holes in that fiction.
For Japan’s part, officials insist they have made no definitive decision on sending missiles yet. However, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has signaled a newly muscular posture regarding defense of allies. Japan only recently amended its long-standing constitutional prohibition on exporting arms to friendly nations. The Russia-Ukraine conflict seems to have strengthened its resolve.
Providing meaningful aid would represent a significant geopolitical shift for Japan. Since WWII, it has maintained a strictly self-defensive military posture. Costly foreign interventions remained unthinkable. But Russia’s naked aggression appears to have changed perspectives on what constitutes a direct threat.
If missile batteries make their way from Japan to Ukraine, relations may freeze over entirely. As Zakharova darkly warns, the consequences would indeed be grave. The two nations never formally concluded a peace agreement after fighting in WWII. Lingering territorial disputes over islands north of Hokkaido already obstacle trade and diplomacy.
Yet Japan also has key alliances to consider. Joining US-led efforts to repel Russian encroachment reaffirms its commitments to Western-style democracy in rhetoric and action. Ukraine’s unexpected tenacity has inspired many to rethink old assumptions about their stakes in the conflict.
Only time will tell whether Japan ultimately decides its own security interests lie more with strengthening Ukraine or avoiding further enraging its neighbor. For now, Russia’s harsh condemnation will likely only compound the difficult deliberations in Tokyo.
