MINSK, Belarus — Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko issued a stark warning on Tuesday that “legitimate” concerns exist over the possibility of a third world war, as his country’s close alliance with Russia prompts preparations to “neutralize risks and threats” in the face of escalating geopolitical tensions.
Mr. Lukashenko’s comments came at a high-level meeting of senior Belarusian officials in the capital Minsk. He painted an ominous picture of deteriorating relations between Russia and its allies on one side and Western powers led by the United States and NATO on the other.
“The world has again come to the brink of the abyss,” Mr. Lukashenko said, according to Belarus state media. There are grounds for concern about a third world war.”
His chilling assessment reflects the increasing anxiety globally over the nearly two-year-old war in Ukraine and rising fears it could spill over into a wider conflict. Ukraine has become the largest military confrontation in Europe since World War II.
Rumblings about the potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia, coupled with smaller-scale clashes erupting across the globe, have ratcheted up tensions. In such a volatile environment, Belarus – a close ally of Russia that shares borders with both Ukraine and NATO members – finds itself in an increasingly precarious position.
“We must be prepared as much as possible to neutralize risks and threats,” Mr. Lukashenko said.
Belarus allowed Russian troops to use its territory as a staging ground for the initial invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While Belarus has so far stopped short of committing its own forces to fight alongside Russia, it has facilitated the Kremlin’s war effort in other ways.
Russia has stationed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and the country has welcomed mercenaries from the Wagner Group private military company after they were forced to leave Russian soil.
According to Mr. Lukashenko, recent joint military exercises and training with Wagner operatives in Belarus “yielded results” in bolstering preparedness. The authoritarian leader claimed the drills have been closely watched by Belarusian intelligence agencies that are “keeping their finger on the pulse.
He alleged without evidence that around 32,000 troops from NATO countries are currently deployed “in the immediate vicinity of Belarus and Russia.”
Mr. Lukashenko’s warnings of looming world war came as NATO is currently holding its largest military exercises in Europe since the Cold War era of the 1990s. Operation Steadfast Defender involves around 90,000 troops from NATO members practicing ground, air, maritime and special operations across Europe over several months.
“I would like to characterize the current phase of the civilizational confrontation between East and West as follows: the masks have been completely dropped,” Mr. Lukashenko said in his ominous assessment on Tuesday. “We need to acknowledge how serious the situation is.”
In his speech, the Belarusian leader touted his country’s recent acquisition of modern Russian weapons systems amid the heightened tensions.
Two new divisions equipped with S-400 surface-to-air missile systems have entered service with Belarus’ military, Lukashenko said. The S-400s are considered roughly analogous to the American Patriot air defense systems.
Another two Belarusian military divisions have been armed with Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile launchers, which can deliver both conventional and nuclear warheads, he claimed.
Belarus has moved closer into Russia’s orbit since the start of the Ukraine invasion. Last month the two countries inked new military cooperation deals that Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed as showcasing the “genuine alliance and strategic partnership between Russia and Belarus.
Many analysts view the increasingly tight Belarus-Russia alliance as an ominous sign of Moscow’s growing attempts to project power and influence westward, even as its military struggles in Ukraine. For Belarus, increased dependence on and integration with Russia is solidifying Mr. Lukashenko’s status as the leader of a de facto Russian client state.
Mr. Lukashenko, often referred to as “Europe’s last dictator,” has ruled Belarus with an iron grip since 1994. He has overseen systematic repression and quashing of dissent, including through violently cracking down on pro-democracy protests after his disputed re-election in 2020.
With his latest apocalyptic warnings, Mr. Lukashenko appears to be signaling his readiness to act as a staunch Russian partner amid the spiraling tensions with the West, even in the face of world war. How far he is willing to go in backing Russia’s potential future military actions remains unclear.
But the chilling rhetoric emanating from Minsk indicates Belarus’ leadership sees itself in lockstep with the Kremlin on a path towards dangerous escalation and confrontation with the West.
As Russia’s faltering invasion of Ukraine nears its second anniversary, fears of wider conflagration loom ominously on the horizon. With no end in sight to the bloody conflict, Mr. Lukashenko’s stark words amount to a sobering warning that both Russia and its closest ally Belarus see the current tensions in nothing less than existential terms.
